U.S.-bound imports see gains amid global supply chain challenges, notes Port Tracker

While various supply chain issues and challenges remain intact, United States-bound import levels continue to see gains, Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Lulls between supply chain challenges seldom last long, and importers are currently looking at issues including high shipping rates, unresolved port labor negotiations and continuing capacity and congestion issues from the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Despite all of that, we’re experiencing the strongest surge in volume we’ve seen in two years, and that’s a good sign for what retailers expect in sales. Consumers can rest assured that retailers will be well-stocked and ready to meet demand as we head into the back-to-school and holiday seasons.”

For May, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volume, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), up 3% compared to March and up 7.5% annually. What’s more, the report pointed out that this marks the highest monthly tally going back to August 2022, when it came in at 2.26 million TEU.

Port Tracker issued projections for June and the subsequent months, including:

• June, at 2.1 million TEU, for a 14.3% annual increase;
• July, at 2.21 million TEU, for a 15.5% annual increase;
• August, at 2.22 million TEU, for a 13.5% annual increase;
• September, at 2.1 million TEU, for a 3.5% annual increase;
• October, at 2.05 million TEU, for a 0.5% annual decrease; and
• November, at 1.96 million TEU, for a 3.5% annual increase

Including April, monthly volumes have only topped the 2 million TEU mark four times, going back to a 19-month stretch of 2 million TEU per month through October 2022. The report noted that the first half of 2024 is estimated to come in at 12.04 million TEU, which would mark a 14.4% annual gain. For calendar year 2023, total imports came in at 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% compared to calendar year 2022.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the risks to global trade continue to head up.

“The situation in and around the Red Sea from Houthi attacks on shipping has impacted the logistics supply chain beyond earlier expectations,” wrote Hackett. “Issues such as longer voyage times are surmountable, but the lack of sufficient capacity has become an issue as importers from Asia to Europe and the U.S. East Coast are adjusting their inventories, which pushes up consumer prices. Port calls are also being adjusted as carriers scramble to find appropriate capacity as vessel availability is increasingly sparce. The result is eye-watering increases in freight rates, which, in turn, bring inflationary pressure. The winners are the carriers, whose income this year is projected to surpass levels experienced immediately after the pandemic. We don’t expect this to change in the foreseeable future.”