U.S-bound May imports remain on the right side of growth, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports saw continued growth in May, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

May imports, at 2.70 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), rose 11% annually, following April’s 8% annual gain, with growth intact for the ninth consecutive month, following a 14-month stretch of annual declines. Total first quarter imports were up 11% annually.

On a year-to-date basis through the first five months of 2024, total U.S.-bound imports, at 12.77 million TEU, posted a 13% annual increase, over May 2023’s 11.33 million TEU tally. What’s more, for the same period in 2021 and 2022, imports each came in at 13.6 million TEU, respectively.

Various segments showed annual import growth in May, with consumer discretionary imports up 10% annually, as well as consumer staples rising 10%, including a 36% annual gain in household and personal care products.

On the industrial side, S&P reported that imports of capital goods increased 10% annually, which included a 15% gain in electrical components, while industrial machinery shipments eased, growing only 1%. And industrial materials saw a 17% annual gain, paced by a 20% gain in shipments of paper and forestry products.  

In an interview, Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence Head of Research Chris Rogers said that May marked the highest import number since August 2022.

“There were a lot of different drivers for that,” he said. “Almost all of the major sectors that we cover, with the exception of consumer electronics, increased in some way, shape, or form in May, with some increasing by a double-digit amount,” he said. “I think it's fair to say we've been surprised by the strength, or the continued strength, in the level of imports.”

Rogers explained that May’s numbers, in a sense, present a paradox, in which consumer spending is doing well but is not wildly strong, and inventory levels, at least as reported by retailers, have been coming down—certainly in dollar terms—which is creating what he called a mismatch.  Those factors, he added, make it unsurprising, regarding the consensus that the 2024 Peak Season has seen an early start.

Looking at 2024 on a year-to-date basis, Rogers said that while shipments remain below 2021 and 2022 levels, they are not all the way back yet, as volumes are still a fair bit below prior peaks, with the expectation there will be a slowdown in the growth rate, down to a single-digit rate in the coming months.

“That is partly due to the fact that we are lapping the inventory downturn,” he said. “First half [2024] on first half [2023], you’re comparing to the inventory downturn, and second half on second half things are looking a bit more normal.”