FTR Trucking Conditions Index shows further signs of improvement

The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, again saw some modest signs of momentum.

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

For October, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading, at -6.07 saw improvement compared to September’s -8.97. That was preceded by August’s -12.54 reading (its lowest reading going back to November 2022), which was preceded by July’s -5.34 reading and June’s -6.29 reading.

FTR explained that falling diesel prices the main driver for what it called “less harsh financial conditions in October,” while adding that the market remains difficult for trucking companies. The outlook is for gradual improvement, with the caveat that TCI readings are forecast to remain negative through 2024.

“The decline in diesel prices represented the only positive contribution to October’s TCI, although rates and cost of capital were less negative factors than they had been in September,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, in a statement. “As we have discussed frequently, the combination of stagnant freight volume and surprisingly resilient capacity is thwarting a near-term turnaround for the truckload sector. Our analysis suggests that market conditions for carriers will not start to recover until the second half of 2024 absent an acceleration in the current rate of capacity loss.”