July preliminary Class 8 orders are strong

Preliminary North American Class 8 net trucking orders, for the month of July, were solid, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.  

FTR reported that July preliminary orders—at roughly 13,500 units—exceeded expectations, while trailing June by 8% and topping July 2022 by 25%. The firm said that even though July’s tally was higher than expected, Class 8 orders continue to be coming in below replacement demand levels, with total Class 8 orders over the last 12 months through July, at more than 301,000 units. And it added that despite coming in above expectations that the “absolute level of orders was weak,” as the Class 8 build remains strong, coupled with the seasonal weakness in orders continuing the trend of shrinking backlogs.  

“We had expected net orders to fall below 10,000 units monthly several months ago as fleets wait for OEMs to open 2024 build slots, but that did not occur,” said Eric Starks, FTR chairman of the board, in a statement. “Build slots are anticipated to open soon, so orders likely will not fall much further—if at all—in the near term. Build slots for 2023 are already filled, so it is unclear when these orders will be slotted, and the situation clearly will add pressure to increase production through the end of the year.”

ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary North American Class 8 July orders—at 16,000—was up 45% annually. And on a seasonally-adjusted basis, July Class 8 orders saw a 5.5% increase, from June to July, at 20,700 units.

“As represented by seasonal factors, this is the time of the year when expectations for orders are low. For both the MD Classes 5-7 and HD Class 8 markets, July is the traditional low-water mark for monthly order placements,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “That low expectation is reconfirmed this year as both MD and HD 2023 backlogs, as measured by BL/BU ratios, are essentially full. In addition to already filled backlogs constraining order flows, 2024 orderboards are not yet, or just barely open, making the opportunity for bigger numbers elusive. All that said, July order activity was largely in line with or slightly above ytd trends.”