May retail sales show gains, according to Commerce and NRF data

United States retail sales, for the month of May, saw gains, according to data respectively issued today by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that May retail sales, at $703.1 billion, were up 0.1% compared to April and up 2.3% annually. And total retail sales, from March through May, rose 2.9% compared to the same period a year ago.

May retail trade sales increased 0.2%, from April to May, and were up 2.0% annually. And non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce sales, saw a strong 6.8% annual increase, with food services and drinking places up 3.8%.

NRF reported that May’s core retail sales, which it bases on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, increased 0.3%, from April to May, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and increased 2.9% annually on an unadjusted basis. It added that core retail sales headed up 3.5% annually through the first five months of 2024, which NRF said was in line with its 2024 retail sales forecast of annual growth between 2.5%-to-3.5%.  

NRF also noted that the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that May core retail sales rose 1.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from April to May, while posting a 2.88% annual gain, compared to 0.4% March to April gain and a 0.05% annual increase in April.

“May’s retail sales give us a snapshot of a reasonably healthy consumer even though spending growth is fluctuating somewhat,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “These numbers indicate that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, generally supporting consumers’ ability and willingness to spend. Inflation pressure has fallen, especially for retail goods, but higher prices for services continue to weigh on the minds of households.”

In a research note, Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData Retail, said that May was a respectable month for retail, with total sales increasing by 2.9% over the prior year.

“Inflation continues to play a role in driving growth, and once this is removed underlying volumes rose by a more modest 1.3%,” he observed. “That said, there is no indication of a major consumer slump or of a dramatic retrenchment in expenditure. Indeed, most households continue to spend at a steady pace, at least on an aggregate basis.

Looking ahead, it is reasonable to expect the consumer will remain steady and spending growth will continue on a gentle upward trajectory. However, the subtle changes in buying behaviors – more caution, more shopping around, more concern for value, more bargain seeking – should not be overlooked. This is not a terrible retail economy, but it is one in which the consumer remains skittish.”